Ron Paul vs. Michael Moore

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hn6ad4_FzM&feature=player_embedded

Commercial Real Estate Over The Cliff

I have been seeing this in my business for the past year. The banks are literally sitting on thousands of delinquent and pre-foreclosure loans. The federal government pressured the FASB to change the mark-to-market requirement and now nobody really knows the financial condition of the banks. However, I believe that next year many local and regional banks will either fold or be swallowed by the larger banks because of their bad commercial real estate portfolios.

Barney is Frank

One thing you can say about Barney Frank is that he makes no qualms about his desire for more government, unlike many so-called "conservatives" who claim to be Thomas Jefferson when campaigning but turn out to be more like Olympia Snowe. Check out the video link.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/10/26/frank_we_are_trying_on_every_front_to_increase_the_role_of_government.html

Check out the P/E ratio. Pay $140 for $1 in earnings? Not me.

Doug Casey on Real Estate

"People don’t understand that buying property with a mortgage is just the same as buying stocks on margin. It’s caused speculative bubbles and malinvestment. Until the malinvestment in those countries is entirely liquidated, you don’t want to invest in real estate in them. But a lot of countries, especially in the third world, have no mortgage debt whatsoever. Zero mortgage debt. You want a piece of property, you pay for it in cash. That keeps prices down and the market much more stable. And it makes for more interesting speculations, because if a mortgage market develops in the future, it could light a fire under prices."

The TARP Lie

The TARP funding was claimed to be necessary in order to prevent a freeze of the capital markets, particularly commercial lending. As you can see from the graphic above, since the time of its issuance, commercial lending has not increased, but rather has decreased. The TARP funds were in fact used in part by the Treasury to buy shares in troubled companies and to ensure that Wall Street firms with holdings in those troubled companies were protected. Large banks receiving TARP funds have used the money to buy up smaller banks and increase their reserve accounts with the Fed.

Bad News For Re-Financing

The chart above shows that sources (other than the Federal Reserve) of funding for refinancing of residential mortgages is drying up. With a large wave of Alt-A and Option Payment mortgages due for interest rate resets next year, and the Fed saying it will stop purchasing agency debt in March of 2010, who will provide the new monies?